Despite, or maybe because of, having nearly 95 percent name recognition, CD-1 Representative Ann Kirkpatrick is trailing challenger Paul Gosar in at least one poll. The American action Forum poll, conducted by Ayes, McHenry and Associates, has Gosar leading the incumbent by six points, 47 percent to 41 percent with two months left in the race.

Kirkpatrick might be hurting from a national trend. Rasmussen Reports polling says nation-wide, likely voters are saying they'll vote Republican by a 10 percent margin over Democrats, one of the largest splits ever.

In this district, voters told pollsters that the characteristics they feel most positive about are keeping taxes low, fixing the health care problem, cutting government spending, and promoting sound economic policies. Voters are more likely to associate these ideas with Gosar over Kirkpatrick by an average of 32 percent to 23 percent. Kirkpatrick shines in the trust department, where she out-polls the relatively unknown Gosar by 25 points.

Health care hurts Kirkpatrick's chances for re-election, so name recognition works against her here. Forty-seven percent of voters say they will be much less likely to vote for her because of her vote for President Obama's mandatory health care bill. The same number of voters are less likely to vote for her because she has come out publicly against Arizona's SB1070 anti-illegal-immigration bill.

In other questions, 96 percent of Republicans and 35 percent of Democrats in this district say the country is on the wrong track. Given a choice of 15 issues, 49 percent of Republicans, 50 percent of independents (or undecided) and 45 percent of Democrats say the economy is the most important issue facing the United States.

Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they are opposed to the health care bill, while 31 percent support it.

In general, pollsters found that 41 percent of likely voters in this district would prefer the next representative be a Republican, while 31 percent would prefer a Democrats. Sixty-four percent of conservatives and 11 percent of liberals would prefer a Republicans, while 9 percent of conservatives and 70 percent of liberals would prefer a Democrat.

All respondents were selected randomly from a list of registered voters in the district, and indicated they are likely to vote in the elections for Congress this fall, and interviews were conducted by live interviewers. Quotas were set by gender, age, and county consistent with past participation, and the sample was minimally weighted by party identification. The margin of error is ±4.90 percent when respondents split evenly on a question.

•Reach the reporter at droberts@wmicentral.com

(3) comments

D Rice

Rep Kirkpatrick, This is the 6th time I have ask this question and still no answer.
Were you one of our elected officials who stood and cheered the Mexician President on the floor of our Congress when he bad mouthed our state over SB 1070?

Deadeye Dave

What Great news... Hey, Ann, you might want to think about getting some boxes to pack your stuff in. This is what happens when you vote for socialism!

concerned taxpayer

Ms. Kirkpatrick.... when you don't listen to your constituents and walk out of town hall meetings, oh I'm sorry, it wasn't a real town hall meeting, you didn't want everyone to hear the questions and answers; when you don't represent what this district wants, we are ready for you to go. My vote goes for Gosar

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