COVID 14-day increase/decrease in cases

New cases of COVID-19 have jumped 56% in Show Low and 450% in Alpine in the past two weeks, according to the state Department of Health Services. Nationally, cases in the past week have risen just 2%, compared to 41% in Arizona. {&bullet}Note, this column represents cases per 100,000 population on a 7-day average.

New cases of COVID-19 continue to surge across Arizona, throwing into harsh light the unexpectedly slow rollout of a new, high-tech vaccine.

New cases of COVID-19 have jumped 56% in Show Low and 450% in Alpine in the past two weeks, according to the state Department of Health Services.

Nationally, cases in the past week have risen just 2%, compared to 41% in Arizona.

However, at midweek the state had distributed and administered only a third of the 314,750 doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines it has received. Two thirds of the doses remain in storage, due to the slow rollout of vaccination clinics at the county level.

This week, the state was slated to get another 140,000 doses, including 60,000 doses intended to be the second shot for frontline healthcare workers and nursing home workers – who are in the top priority group. This would mean the state has received 255,000 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech doses and 201,000 Moderna doses. That’s enough to vaccinate 228,00 people — or 3% of the state’s population with the full, two-dose regime.

The state has 27,000 nursing home residents and staff, 70,000 nurses and 10,000 doctors. The state also has 49,000 teachers.

The rollout has gone so slowly nationally that the federal Centers for Disease Control has urged states to move quickly through the priority groups to make sure as many people get shots as quickly as possible. County officials say that fewer front-line healthcare workers have lined up for their shots than expected.

However, most counties this week were not letting people make appointments unless they were in the highest priority groups, starting with nursing home residents and front-line medical workers and then moving on to public safety workers, teachers and other essential front-line workers as well as people older than 75.

Gila County at midweek was actually among the most advanced when it came to administering shots — moving quickly from the 1A priority group to the 1B group, which includes adults older than 75 and other groups of essential, front-line workers — like police officers and paramedics.

The slow rollout in part reflects the difficulty of handling the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. They both have to remain superchilled and the 10-shot vials must be used within an hour of when they’re opened, which means you have to have at least 10 people ready to get the shot at once. Moreover, the federal government lagged in providing the $10 billion states requested to set up an efficient mass-vaccination system. Congress did include $8 billion for vaccinations in the just-passed, second stimulus bill. Finally, county health workers say that more health care and nursing home workers have not made appointments than they expected — slowing the rollout further.

Large scale studies have shown that both of the currently approved vaccines are 95% effective, with minimal side effects. The most common reported side effects are sore arms, headaches and flu-like symptoms for a day or two.

Meanwhile, the virus continues with its rampage throughout the state, making Arizona this week the national hot spot.

On Jan 5, the state health department reported 10,000 cases, 290 deaths and 4,789 hospitalizations. In the past week, the state has reported almost 9,000 new cases each day. Hospitals are now nearing capacity, with a 17% increase in hospitalizations in the past week.

The state’s zip code reporting system shows that cases are spreading rapidly in most areas of Navajo and Apache Counties. Those numbers don’t include the Navajo and Apache reservations, which have a separate reporting system.

The highest rates of spread in the state figures are mostly smaller communities, where a handful of new cases can have a big impact. In the past two weeks, cases have surged 450% in Alpine, 156% in Springerville, 80% in Concho and 94% in Eager.

Some other areas have seen declines in new cases – although most still have relatively high infection rates. Winslow has seen a 2% decline in the past two weeks, St. Johns has remained steady, Overgaard has declined 23% and Heber by 50%.

The infection rate per 100,000 population throughout Navajo and Apache Counties remains relatively high, including 120 per 100,000 in Show Low, 110 in Snowflake, 360 in Alpine, 130 in Winslow, 150 in Springerville and 150 in Overgaard.

The lowest infection rates in the region were reported in St. Johns (60/100,000), Concho (50/100,000) and Heber (20/100,000).

Peter Aleshire covers county government and other topics for the Independent. He is the former editor of the Payson Roundup. Reach him at

(6) comments


Yet many still won't wear a mask. Their rights are killing people.


So you can post a comment basically calling anyone not following the official narrative a killer but no rebuttals will be tolerated... Got it...


hahahahahahahaha ignorance is bliss.

Horse Rider

If a significant number of vaccine doses remain in storage because people in 1a don't want them, start giving them to people in 1b.


Great article - assuming you want to cause panic and mislead people. So Alpine has a 450% increase? And 360 cases per 100,000? Wow, sounds bad. But what about the fact that Alpine only has 119 residence? Could the numbers be just a bit misleading with the specific purpose to breed fear? I'm gonna answer "yes".


I live near Alpine. My nearest neighbors all contracted Covid. One got bad enough to go to the local hospital and after a week of suffering there took a nose dive and had to be emergency airlifted to Phoenix where he spent nearly 2 weeks in ICU. Meanwhile his wife and daughter are at home and have been on oxygen since mid-December. It will probably be months before they are completely well (if ever), and yet there are still people claiming it's a hoax and not wearing masks to help protect their neighbors. Whatever happened to "Love your neighbor as yourself?"

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