White Mountains—As of May 25, the current U.S. “confirmed cases” are 1,760,000 and deaths are about 103,000. That is a mortality rate of .05 percent. For Arizona the confirmed cases are 16,783 with 807 deaths for a mortality rate of .04 percent. Navajo County has 1,543 confirmed cases, 56 deaths and a mortality rate of .03 percent. Apache County has 1,191 cases, 26 deaths, and a mortality rate of .02 percent.

During the beginning of this mass over-zealous fear spreading, it was reported by the Imperial College of London that the death toll could reach 2.2 million. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) stated 1 million deaths and then dropped it to 200 thousand.

Infection rates are not as important as hospitalization and death rates. The more people who are tested the more positive case numbers will go up. Estimates range from 71 to 80 percent of people have no or little symptoms of the covid-19 virus and those that get it have only mild to moderate cases.

During the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC “estimates” 16.5 million went to a health care provider for the flu and more than 80,000 died. The season before that, there were 61,000 deaths from the flu.

At a press conference, Dr. Fauci stated a patient who dies and tested positive will be counted as COVID-19 death NO MATTER THE CIRCUMSTANCES.

The World Health Organization (WHO) posted guidelines for determining official deaths from COVID-19. It stated “…do not require cases be positively confirmed through virus testing, but only that it is suspected to be a cause of death.” There is no national standard on reporting or counting deaths, nor is there a reliable, infallible test, as many different kinds are being used. So the numbers being put out are also not reliable.

Where is the other data that should be given out regularly? Age groups of those that died and who recovered? How many tests are accurate? How many people are carriers? How many actual tests have been given? How many are people that wore the masks, how many were not wearing masks? How many elderly and those with preexisting conditions have died? Data is only good if you have a full account of the facts, not based on spreading fear by only reporting the number of “new cases.” The numbers that are provided seem to all say one thing, COMPLICATIONS of COVID-19.

Doctors and nurses have been reporting that they were told to count most deaths as COVID-19, regardless of whether it was official or not. Hospitals get thousands of dollars paid to them for deaths, more from COVID-19. Someone told me their doctor said the current tests sometimes reported positive if the patient recently had the regular flu or even the common cold. That’s because the common cold is caused by one of the many strains of corona virus.

National Public Radio (NPR) did an investigation and found that despite $660 million in federal spending to setup over 30 field hospitals, they had ZERO patients. Other hospitals are furloughing doctors and nurses.

If every single person in the country were tested, it would reveal millions of uncounted cases. Not new cases but previously uncounted. What it would reveal is that the death RATE is MUCH SMALLER than reported. If there was an accurate antibody test, it would reveal that at least 10s of millions had it and didn't even know it.

Bottom line is that the virus is not nearly as deadly as it was purported to be, but the damage to the economy and the everyday lives of Americans by the mandates and shutdowns has been devastating. It is time for government and health officials to get out of the way and allow Americans to live and/or die as they so choose. Each individual has personal responsibility for their own health and freedom.

In the next editorial in this COVID-19 series, I will be covering the numbers of unemployed, businesses dying, and the stimulus money passed out and who got how much. I will also cover the fallacies of wearing a mask and social distancing.

(21) comments

parkwmi

When I divide 103,000 by 1,760,000 the result is .058, which translates to 5.8%.

aired1

She was only off by a factor of one hundred, give or take.

2linden

But the truth would mess up her argument. Sounds like someone else that we used to hear from daily about COVID-19.

phxnative54

Ms. Warnick, you do no one any good by spreading DISinformation. As others have already pointed out, your math is completely off. So is your out-of-context quote from the Imperial College about the predicted number of deaths; that number was estimated based on NOT practicing stay-at-home and social distancing measures. We did, and it worked (until states started opening up again, perhaps prematurely. And you CANNOT keep comparing this pandemic to the flu - they are completely unalike, and comparing them is disingenuous at best. What we NEED to do is to continue practicing stay-at-home and social distancing as much as practicable, wash your hands, avoid crowded indoor spaces as much as possible, and wear a mask when social distancing is not possible.

fishinguy

More then anything else this is in my opinion the best part.

It is time for government and health officials to get out of the way and allow Americans to live and/or die as they so choose. Each individual has personal responsibility for their own health and freedom.

phxnative54

fishinguy: The problem with that line of thinking is that is isn't just "each individual" who is affected. It has been clearly shown that people have been spreading the virus who are pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic. Uninformed, ignorant, uncaring and/or just plain irresponsible people walking around untested and potentially infectious put OTHERS at risk - not just themselves.

2rusty

fishinguy...Totally agree; thanks for daring to dive in the swamp [smile]

D_duck

Karen, to bad you never had a math class

worker bee

Karen seems to be critical of how the COVID19 deaths are being calculated yet she is very quick to quote the deaths from the flu. The deaths from the flu are estimated the exact same way. Most deaths attributed to the flu are based on best guess and very few are based on actual viral culture. The tests that are used in hospitals are more screening tests than proof positive of the flu (viral culture). The biggest error with comparing the current pandemic to the flu is that most of medical science is based on change from the baseline. When you go to any medical person or non-medical healer is one of the first questions asked is what is different. Is the pain better or worse, are you sleeping better is the mole getting bigger or darker, is your hearing changing, what is different, etc. As Karen has pointed out the number of deaths from the flu really has not changed over many years. How about COVID19, no deaths were recorded in the last hundred years. Now we have 100K in three months and still climbing, that is a change that needs to be investigated and stopped. A simple comparison, 40, 000 people die in auto accidents every year. But if one day we woke up and discovered that 200 died in automobiles in Show Low in one day, there would be investigations and screams for action. Why, because it was a huge and significant change from the baseline. COVID19 has been at zero for a long time, now it is at 100K in a few short months, please do not ignore it. And she really needs to take a math class.

phxnative54

Ms. Warnick: It is painfully apparent that you are not paying attention to what's going on in Arizona. I encourage you - nay, beseech you - to go to this website and download the PDF of the presentation.

Banner Health Chief Clinical Officer Dr. Marjorie Bessel discusses Banner Health COVID-19 data during press conference

http://bannerhealth.mediaroom.com/trending-now-at-banner?item=123055

Mtnlife

Please tell me she doesn’t get paid for her articles! She has got to go!

Clara

The comments to date reveal poor understanding of how mortality rates of infectious diseases, such as coronavirus, are determined. Because 80-90% of COVID-19 patients have no or minor symptoms and recover without problems, they have largely not been tested. Until only recently, CDC and health departments across the country have only tested people screened, sick and needing medical care. Of course, anyone can see that patients sick and undergoing or needing medical treatment will die at higher rates that those home with minor cold symptoms or those having no symptoms at all.

Positive tests reported in media primarily reflect sick patients, hence, simply dividing the deaths against those reported case numbers results in artificially high mortality rates. Instead, there have been a number of good studies published in the medical literature examining a representative sample of a population and finding that a significant portion of people in America have or have had COVID-19. It's already out in the community and no amount of closing the barn door at this point will change these facts. (The virus is running its course, as all coronaviruses do, with no credible relationship to social distancing and lockdown measures.) These published studies have found that the overall true mortality rate among COVID infected people is 0.05 to 0.2%. This is in line with the mortality rates of the seasonal flu. Even the CDC finally admitted this in recent press releases. The low mortality of COVID-19 comparable to the seasonal flu was known and published in the medical literature before any state in the U.S. had issued emergency declarations and shut down the country. Fauci reported this in the New England Journal of Medicine back in February, weeks before Governor Ducey issued his first COVID-19 emergency order on March 11th.

Scaremongering about hospital bed and ventilator shortages has been repeatedly debunked in the medical literature. Surely, you've read about all of those ventilators that even NYC ended up returning and not needing. And layoffs of medical personnel, and even hospital closures and bankruptcies have become widespread as hospitals and ERs sit empty and under capacity. Arizona hospitals have been losing between $200 million and $600 million a month, according the hospital association. And just a few weeks ago, on April 20th, Banner Health announced in the Arizona Republic that it was issuing pay cuts and short term furloughs for 5% to 7% of its medical employees due to underutilization in the wake of COVID-19.

Here are the facts. According to the American Hospital Directory database, there are 610,133 available hospital beds in Arizona. According to state public health COVID-19 medical stats, updated daily on COVID Tracking Project, there are currently 1,278 Arizonians hospitalized who test positive for COVID-19. (That doesn't mean they are all hospitalized due to COVID, just that they test positive for it. But, we'll assume they are just for this illustration.) That means that COVID-19 patients are currently occupying 0.2% of available hospital beds in Arizona. Hardly a crisis to any thinking person.

Despite all sorts of hanky panky with COVID-19 death statistics, all designed to exaggerate the number of deaths (as much as 25% to 90% according to HHS and other health experts), the number of COVID-19 related deaths in Arizona is 1,042 to date. This is 0.014% of the population of Arizona.

Please stop believing every scary number being reported by media and those with vested interests in keeping you in fear. We must take back our lives, our churches, our businesses and our schools and live normally again. Some want us to believe that we can't return to normal until it's safe. Safe means never.

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/05/some-thoughts-about-being-safe-dennis-prager/

worker bee

Clara says that her research shows that As has over 600K hospital beds in the state I checked the source Ariz has about 14K beds Clara confused the labels, 600K were discharges Guess that was another one of the ooooppps. I wonder how many of her numbers are oooppps.

worker bee

Clara I sure hope you are right and so many others of us are wrong. Don't mind being wrong for the right reason. Though watching the numbers around the country and the world the coronavirus is causing an increase in positives and hospitalizations. And we have not been that far removed from the great reopening. Comparing this to the our yearly flu season is problematic. Remember we have a long history with flu and have vaccines that work to some extent and drugs that work pretty well. I hope that next year we will all be able to say that Clara was right. The scientists out there say you are wrong. You can guess who I am going with. After reading your comment again, do you have a source for your stat that 25%-90% deaths due to coronavirus are exaggerated. That would be interesting to follow up on.

worker bee

Clara you say that the CDC has admitted that the mortality is the same as the flu I missed that one could you site the source please Karen would like it as well since her numbers are not at all the same Also using Dennis Prager as your source That is the best you can do I thought you had all these CDC and medical school sources

Clara

Thank you for catching that, WB. Here is a corrected paragraph: According to the American Hospital Directory database, there are 13,416 available hospital beds in Arizona. According to state public health COVID-19 medical stats, updated daily on COVID Tracking Project, there are currently 1,252 Arizonians hospitalized who test positive for COVID-19. (That doesn't mean they are all hospitalized due to COVID, just that they test positive for it. But, we'll assume they are just for this illustration.) That means that COVID-19 patients are currently occupying 9% of available hospital beds in Arizona. It is STILL hardly a crisis to any thinking person.

2rusty

Clara... While a disagree with most of your comments here, I'm so appreciative of your response to WB. Civility has such a calming effect. Thanks.

ronzim

Dated June 9th. “Lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, closed schools, and canceled public events prevented millions of Covid-19 coronavirus cases and deaths, according to two new peer-reviewed studies in the journal Nature.

One of the studies estimated the number of Covid-19 cases with and without these tough interventions. They found that in six countries, including China and the US, pandemic control policies had a huge effect. In the United States alone, the measures stopped 4.8 million more confirmed cases of Covid-19 and up to 60 million infections in total. In China, they prevented 285 million infections.

In the second study, researchers looked at the number of deaths from Covid-19 in 11 countries in Europe. They found that 3.1 million deaths in these countries were avoided with pandemic control measures.

Closing economies and shutting down public life prevented millions of infections and deaths

In one of the studies, led by Solomon Hsiang, director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California Berkeley, researchers looked at policies in China, France, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and the US to control the virus. The researchers examined 1,717 “non-pharmaceutical interventions” across these countries with real-world data and used econometric methods to trace the effects induced by these changes. Interventions included things like closing schools, declaring a state of emergency, banning travel, home isolation, and paid sick leave.”

Dated May 20, Vox: “They found that in the early stages of the pandemic, cases grew by about 38 percent per day without any interventions. But measures to control the pandemic like canceling large gatherings “significantly and substantially slowed this growth.”

Taken together, such tactics prevented 62 million confirmed Covid-19 cases around the world. And since tests only find a small fraction of the total cases of the disease, researchers say that this estimate corresponds to about 530 million total infections around the world that were avoided.

But comparing recorded flu deaths to recorded Covid-19 deaths is also telling. Faust writes:

If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.”

phxnative54

We're a little over two weeks since Memorial Day Weekend and all the coincident cavorting about by the covidiots that came with it. Guess what?

"As COVID-19 numbers in Arizona climbed last week, the state health director sent a letter to hospitals urging them to "fully activate" emergency plans.

Hospitals are also being asked to prepare for crisis care, and to suspend elective surgeries if they are experiencing a shortage of staff or bed capacity, Dr. Cara Christ, Arizona Department of Health Services director, says in the June 6 letter."

"Overall, COVID-19 numbers in Arizona have jumped, hospitalizations have increased and as the percentage of positive COVID-19 tests showed increases, too. Some experts say Arizona is experiencing a spike in community spread of COVID-19, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is at least 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu and can cause prolonged illness."

Good job, covidiots.

ronzim

Boy oh boy! What a time this must be for bridge salesmen. You can sell the Brooklyn Bridge to the science illiterates, ideologues, pseudo-science dancers, and gulls who abound. These are the folk who start every inquiry with a conclusion and then sort through the media until they find some contrarian view to science, and offer that as research. They are the bulwark of that phenomenon of conspiracism I have been writing about.

Science does not work that way. Science starts with a question and uses time-tested methods and objective protocols to follow the evidence, wherever it may lead, to the conclusion, which must then be published and subjected to the skeptical review of peers to achieve validity. Moreover, unlike the conspiracists and pseudo-scientists, the scientific answers, whether theories (which explain an observed phenomenon) or laws (which describe a phenomenon) always retain a doubt because some future change in the information, techniques or technology may occur which cause an iterative improvement in the former answer (Einstein showing that the speed of light was not infinite but a mere 300,000km/second).

Where science issues projections of future outcomes, such information is always cast within a range of possibilities where the lowest figure is the least that can occur and the highest is the most. The area between those two numbers is the area of uncertainty and, in common parlance, is expressed as the mean of the two extremes. Other data which seek to count something are qualified by error factors, such as a survey with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Some data are also qualified by confidence levels such as a 94.6% level of confidence (out of 100 trials you will get 94.6% positives as predicted).

In the case of the pandemic, there are three basic areas of inquiry, aside from the biological research to find a vaccine or therapy: How contagious is it? How deadly is it? What non-medical precautions work? The answers to the first two questions must be in the form of a comparison with some or all other known diseases. One of these is influenza. The answers are, extremely and extremely. Such adjectival terms, however, lack precision but are derived from the data revealed by scientific research. Almost any synonym for “extremely” could be used. We are at the beginning of a pandemic which means that everything, including data, is shifting on a day-to-day basis; however, what we now know is that the virus has an R0 value of at least twice that of flu and a mortality rate of 10-40 time the virus.

Remember that the data for flu is estimated by a complex algorithm at CDC because reporting flu is not mandatory in all states. Death data for the virus are derived from actual counts. There are two ways to calculate such information: First is the “case” number of illnesses which is, essentially, the number of patients admitted to hospitals. Second is the “infection” number of cases which is higher because of weak testing, unreported infections, and both asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic patients. In calculating the mortality rate, we therefore get two numbers depending upon whether we divide the number of deaths by the number of cases or the lager number of infections. Using the “infection” rate as the denominator we get a smaller mortality rate and that is the one used to evaluate lethality by comparing it with flu or others.

The efficacy of precautions is well known. Those nations (or areas) which moved immediately to lockdown, masks, distancing, hand washing and reduced face touching, along with intensive testing, tracing and isolation have experienced the lowest consequences from the virus. The country with the best public health and economic outcomes is Vietnam, followed by Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Vietnam has a population of 95,000,000 and has not had one death by the virus and only 300 cases of infection, yet its economy is projected to grow at the rate of 2.7% this year, the best virus-infected nation in the world. New Zealand, Iceland and Australia all had similar public health outcomes but an increased economic consequence. Of the 31 nations evaluated, the U.S. has the fifth worst public health outcome and the sixth worst economic outcome. Source: Independent analysis by Polititco.com. Other sources, Johns Hopkins, Pharmaceutical Technology, Worldometers, Wikipedia are similar. In Forbes’ tope 40 nations, by covid safety ranking, the U.S. does not even appear.

[sad]

ronzim

Clarification: " * * *10 to 40 time the virus." would be better as "* * *10 to 40 times the flu." or "flu virus". Sorry for the sloppy wording.

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