If you have concerns that elections were stolen, you might have felt disappointment with recent audits in Georgia and Maricopa County. “What a waste of time.” Polls (538 Delux Prediction Margins) ahead of the election, machine count election results, and hand recounts were nearly identical.

Is there an indicator that could help determine where to apply recount/audits? Full hand recount/audits have since 2017 changed results in two of six races. Currently, we have percentage triggers that call for hand recounts in close races. This is assuming that those cheating couldn’t move the results outside those preset limits.

Scientific polling methods have been developed for decades and polling companies are highly motivated to be the most accurate. Polling cannot take into account for invalid voters (dead or multiple) or vote tally manipulations. The natural result would be a disparity between election results and polls.

If you feel Biden lost you will look towards Colorado at 2.1 or Maryland with a 1.86 discrepancy between polls and results in favor of Biden. The other 48 states leaned to the red, North Dakota -11.66 and Montana -10.02 were the largest difference. Let's have hand recounts where they might be needed as a mitigation measure to protect our elections.

Kenny Cail

Lakeside

(8) comments

phxnative54

Think about it, people: If Democrats were truly "rigging elections" we'd have single-payer health care, clean air and water, an end to Citizens United and gerrymandering, no Fox "News" and solar cars by now.

ronzim

phxnative54: Right you are and if we put Republicans in charge of all deserts, in three weeks there would be a shortage of sand.

Justsayin141

Good thought. Very true. Kinda like the belief that chemtrails are used for mind control. If they really were then people would believe anything. Oh maybe they do work.

ronzim

Ballotpedia analyzed 4,687 statewide general elections and found that recounts occurred 27 times. Of these 27, the report identified 15 as consequential. In three instances a consequential recount resulted in a reversal: U.S. Senate in 2008 in Minnesota, auditor in 2006 in Vermont, and governor in 2004 in Washington, plus two more since 2017.

The average shift across all recounts was 282 votes, or 19 hundredths of one percent of the statewide vote in those races. Where the total votes cast were above two million, the margin shift averaged 16 one hundredths of one percent of the vote. Where the total votes cast were fewer than one million, the margin shift averaged 39 one hundredths of one percent.

So you see Kenny, only when the original tabulation of the winner’s margin was vanishingly tiny was a recount justified and the second count resulted in the same tiny error margins even in the rare cases of reversal. The lesson here is that recount/audits are only worth the effort when the original margin was miniscule. Absent fraud (none found in all these elections) recounting results is a waste of time and money.

scubagal

Pointing out how little change occurs in vote tallies show a lack of understanding that machines do what the software tells them, that time sensitive software is non existent, that cyber-detectives are flawless (Solar Winds), who is calling for hand recounts (and their reasons), and where the very few recounts have been made.

scubagal

So in the last four years there have been two of 6 races overturn by full hand recounts. Yet 6 nations since 2017 including (France, Germany, Canada, Ireland) have mandatory full hand recounts (100%) of all their federal races. The US checks rarely (.58%) and I'm curious how many were initiated by the political side that has remarkably defied polls.

So you see Ron, the lesson to be learned is "trust but verify". Democracy is indeed worth it in both time and money.

cakeman

Scubagal, What are your sources of information on your comment? I researched and found that France and Germany use hand ballots, but no mention of a mandatory/automatic recount.

scubagal

"Code Red" a book authored by Jonathan Simon who has done extensive research in polling comparison to election results, electronic election vote tallying machines and their makers, and has reccomended election mitigation methods. He is often asked to speak with lawyer Jennifer Cohn (Election Security advocate) and John Brakey (Audit USA).

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